The Pitfall of 'Sometimes'
Submitted: 20 Sep 13 15:54

Among countless conversations I had with COP traders, I often hear these after they asked me about a certain trade setup that I use and how I take my profits.

"..... oh I see... But you know, sometimes it can go bad...."
"But sometimes, the spread line was aligned and yet it went the other way.... "
"But sometimes, it WASN'T aligned and it turned out good!"
"Sometimes, I noticed that when ...... the trade will be good/bad......"

"Sometimes" is a dangerous notion when it comes to trading. The fact that those instances (the "sometimes") became noticeable is because the trader is starting to pay attention to those once in a while occurrences.

We always stand by the principle that trading is not about luck. It is not about those once in a while phenomenon. It is really about capitalizing on chart patterns that repeat themselves with reliable consistencies. And the only way to know for sure that the repetition is reliable is by:

1. Noting a phenomenon
2. Charting its occurrences and outcome and the accompanying conditions
3. Testing it over an extended period of time
4. Finally fine tune it by eliminating various parameters using enough data

When that trader starts to emphasize on 'Sometimes' without having any meaningful quantifiable data and studies, he is just allowing what he chose to perceive to justify actions he is taking or not taking.

For example, John takes a trade despite the trade not meeting all the entry parameters because he thought that the trade can sometimes still go his way. In this case, he is just justifying himself for taking the trade and the underlying reason is actually impatience or the fear of missing out. Or, Tim lets a trade goes despite the trade setup meeting all rules because he thought that sometimes, the trade still can turn bad. In fact, he is just operating out of the fear of losing money.

So do observe yourself objectively. If you are catching yourself thinking in terms of 'sometimes' too often, you are actually trading blind.